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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.