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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."